Prediction Accuracy
Every 10 min the app asks, for each plane flight time: “if I left now on this plane, would stock be there when I land?” — then checks reality once that time has passed. Each row is one plane duration (Business → Standard), not a clock time.
Hawaii
Shark Fin
| Plane flight | Verified | Accuracy | Said stock, was empty | Said empty, was stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0:38 | 1008 | 71% | 45 (4%) | 246 (24%) |
| 1:04 | 1008 | 46% | 343 (34%) | 200 (20%) |
| 1:29 | 1008 | 72% | 116 (12%) | 169 (17%) |
| 2:07 | 1008 | 73% | 36 (4%) | 241 (24%) |
correct (in stock) correct (empty) predicted stock, was empty predicted empty, was stock not verified yet
Turtle Shell
| Plane flight | Verified | Accuracy | Said stock, was empty | Said empty, was stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0:38 | 1008 | 70% | 59 (6%) | 246 (24%) |
| 1:04 | 1008 | 59% | 185 (18%) | 224 (22%) |
| 1:29 | 1008 | 74% | 63 (6%) | 196 (19%) |
| 2:07 | 1008 | 72% | 34 (3%) | 251 (25%) |
correct (in stock) correct (empty) predicted stock, was empty predicted empty, was stock not verified yet
Switzerland
Neumune Tablet
| Plane flight | Verified | Accuracy | Said stock, was empty | Said empty, was stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0:53 | 1007 | 98% | 0 (0%) | 18 (2%) |
| 1:28 | 1008 | 99% | 0 (0%) | 11 (1%) |
| 2:03 | 1007 | 98% | 0 (0%) | 18 (2%) |
| 2:55 | 1008 | 98% | 0 (0%) | 18 (2%) |
correct (in stock) correct (empty) predicted stock, was empty predicted empty, was stock not verified yet
China
Pangolin Scales
| Plane flight | Verified | Accuracy | Said stock, was empty | Said empty, was stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:09 | 1008 | 80% | 123 (12%) | 83 (8%) |
| 1:54 | 1008 | 70% | 43 (4%) | 258 (26%) |
| 2:40 | 1007 | 66% | 106 (11%) | 240 (24%) |
| 3:49 | 1008 | 55% | 125 (12%) | 325 (32%) |
correct (in stock) correct (empty) predicted stock, was empty predicted empty, was stock not verified yet
Canada
Xanax
| Plane flight | Verified | Accuracy | Said stock, was empty | Said empty, was stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0:12 | 1007 | 84% | 63 (6%) | 98 (10%) |
| 0:19 | 1008 | 81% | 63 (6%) | 125 (12%) |
| 0:27 | 1008 | 80% | 56 (6%) | 149 (15%) |
| 0:39 | 1008 | 78% | 43 (4%) | 183 (18%) |
correct (in stock) correct (empty) predicted stock, was empty predicted empty, was stock not verified yet